Top news, reports and insights for today:
- Daily deadline summaries for Monday:
- Exponential increase in COVID-19 cases continue in Florida as local leaders attempt to crack down on people and businesses. Evidence mounts that recent surges have been mostly among young people (CBSNews)
- Hospitals are gaining new knowledge about how to combat COVID-19 in patients by sharing information and trying new strategies. One promising approach involves using old treatments to address blood clots (Scientific American)
- Oxford university researchers have begun testing their vaccine in Brazil and other hard-hit countries to evaluate potential efficacy (BMJ)
- New poll says 64% of adults believe the CDC mostly gets the facts about the outbreak right; 30% say the same about Trump and his administration. A rising fraction of both Democrats and Republicans now say the epidemic is exaggerated (Pew Research Center)
- U.S. now in exponential growth of daily cases, fastest rate of increase since the epidemic began. Does anyone care?
The U.S. has exceeded the highest previously recorded daily total cases in each of the last 5 days. We are used to seeing significant drops in reported cases on Sunday and Monday for each week since March due to reporting lags (darker blue bars). Astonishingly, the Sunday and Monday reports are still higher than any day that occurred during the first “peak” in late April. Not only are cases rising past that first peak, it is now more evident that it’s rising exponentially. For a clearer view, see the bottom figure showing the total accumulating case totals for the U.S. since March 1. The tell-tale sign of exponential growth is the curvature in the rise in cumulative cases, evident here in the last two weeks. For further context, consider the time it takes to arrive at each 500,000 case plateau. It took 40 days for the first half million cases to be reported. Then, the first peak arose as it took just 19 days to hit 1 million cases. After lockdowns, the pace slowed; it took 21 days to get to 1.5 million and 24 days to reach 2 million. However, the next 500,000 cases have come in just 17 days, the shortest interval yet.
The bottom line: The U.S. is back to where it was before lockdown, with sustained and widespread community transmission resulting in exponential growth of the epidemic. Cases are now rising in 37 states.
Are we growing numb to the reality?
Thomas A. Glass, Ph.D. 